Africa needs $360–400 billion annually in infrastructure investment. Nigeria's gap stands at $2.3 trillion between 2020 and 2043. Some sectors — power IPPs, ports, digital — have demonstrated that private capital can be structured and deployed. Others remain aspirational. A practitioner's assessment of what is bankable.
1. The scale of the infrastructure deficit
The African Development Bank's 2025 Country Focus Report on Nigeria places the country's infrastructure gap at $2.3 trillion between 2020 and 2043 and the annual development financing gap at $31.5 billion [1]. The national infrastructure budget — across roads, power, water, digital, and transport — has never exceeded $2 billion per year. The arithmetic is not a financing challenge at the margin. It is a civilisational challenge requiring the mobilisation of private capital at a scale that public budgets, by themselves, will never achieve.
AfDB's new Country Strategy Paper for Nigeria (2025–2030) commits $2.95 billion over four years, complemented by an estimated $3.21 billion in co-financing — approximately $650 million per year [2]. Meaningful, but against a $31.5 billion annual gap, it represents 2% of what is required. The remaining 98% must come from the private sector, structured through instruments that private capital can underwrite.
2. The PPP framework in Nigeria
Nigeria's legal and institutional framework for PPPs has improved materially in the past decade. The Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission (ICRC), established under the ICRC Act 2005, provides the regulatory structure for federal infrastructure concessions. The Presidential Infrastructure Development Fund — seeded with $1 billion from the Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority — anchors government equity commitment. InfraCredit, backed by AfDB and GuarantCo, provides partial credit enhancement for Naira-denominated infrastructure bonds [4].
At the state level, Lagos has been the most active PPP market — the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway rehabilitation, the Lekki Deep Sea Port, the Lekki-Epe Expressway toll concession, and multiple power distribution concessions demonstrate that structurally sound transactions with experienced operators can reach financial close.
What InfraCredit has demonstrated. By providing local currency guarantees for infrastructure bonds, InfraCredit enables issuers to access Naira-denominated capital from pension funds and insurers at investment-grade terms they could not achieve standalone. In June 2024, AfDB signed a $15 million subordinated loan facility to expand InfraCredit's guarantee capacity [4]. The mechanism works. The constraint is volume.
3. What is bankable: a sector-by-sector assessment
Power generation — selectively bankable. Independent Power Producers with gas-to-power configurations, backed by DFC, IFC, and commercial bank debt, have closed projects ranging from 100MW to 460MW. The Azura-Edo IPP (461MW, commissioned 2018) remains the benchmark — a $900m project with a World Bank partial risk guarantee, IFC as lead arranger, and a PPA with the bulk trader [10]. Bankable subsectors: gas-to-power IPPs with NBET offtake; distributed solar for C&I customers; mini-grids with grant blending. Return expectations: USD 12–18% IRR; Naira 22–28%. Deal-killers to manage: NBET payment arrears ($1.8B+), FX convertibility, distribution network constraints.
Transport and logistics — emerging bankability. The Lekki Deep Sea Port — Nigeria's first privately developed deep sea port, commissioned 2023 — is the defining infrastructure transaction of the decade. The $1.5 billion JV between Tolaram Group (75%) and Lagos State (25%) was financed through DFI debt (IFC, AfDB, FMO, GuarantCo), commercial banks, and equity. Bankable subsectors: port logistics and bonded warehousing; toll-road concessions with traffic history; airport cargo terminals; inland dry ports near production zones. Return expectations: USD 14–20% IRR for greenfield; Naira 24–30%. Deal-killers: traffic/volume risk on new corridors, Land Use Act delays, government counterparty reliability on viability gap payments.
Water infrastructure — difficult but not impossible. The most challenging sector for private capital, because revenue depends on government-controlled tariffs and willingness to pay. However, institutional reform of state water boards creates conditions for output-based aid mechanisms and lease/operate structures. Bankable subsectors: industrial water supply to estate developments; treatment for large private offtakers; bulk water supply under lease from reformed state utilities. Naira returns 20–25% with output-based aid. Limited closed transactions to date.
Digital infrastructure — fastest growing. Fibre broadband, data centres, towers, and fintech backbone account for 33% of African private infrastructure deal value in 2024 per AVCA [8]. Clear commercial revenue models, strong demand growth, and minimal regulatory constraint. Bankable subsectors: fibre backbone, co-location data centres (Lagos, Abuja), tower infrastructure, fintech payment rails. Return expectations: USD 15–25% IRR; Naira 25–35%. Recent transactions: Equinix Lagos, IHS Towers ($4.8B valuation), MainOne (acquired by Equinix), Rack Centre. IFC has been the most active lender, with 2024 commitments of $100M+ to Nigerian tech infrastructure [2].
4. The pension fund opportunity
Nigerian pension funds represent the single largest pool of institutional capital that can plausibly be directed to domestic infrastructure. With ₦27.45 trillion in AUM at December 2025 — a ₦4.94 trillion increase in a single year — and over 65% allocated to FGN securities, even modest reallocation creates transformational funding capacity [6].
PenCom's September 2025 Revised Regulation expands permissible investments to include additional alternative asset classes [7]. Private equity currently accounts for just 1.06% of total pension AUM (~₦290 billion against ₦27.45 trillion). Infrastructure funds that meet PenCom's structure requirements — Naira-denominated, appropriately rated, with custody and liquidity provisions — can access a pool larger than the GDP of most African economies.
5. What makes a Nigerian infrastructure deal bankable: the checklist
Based on closed transactions and institutional investor requirements, the following conditions are necessary (though not always sufficient): (i) revenue certainty — a contracted offtake, demonstrated usage history, or escrow/guarantee-backed government payment obligation; (ii) government commitment — a credible federal or Lagos State counterparty with a track record of honouring PPP obligations; (iii) DFI anchor — IFC, AfDB, FMO, BII, or Proparco as senior lender or guarantor; (iv) Naira/USD structuring matched to the revenue currency; (v) InfraCredit or MIGA guarantee to upgrade Naira bonds to investment-grade for PFA participation; (vi) an experienced technical operator with demonstrated sector and geography experience.
6. What the AMANI Fund sees
GTCM's AMANI Infrastructure Fund is structured specifically around the conditions described above — deploying patient, Naira-denominated institutional capital into Nigerian and West African PPP transactions that meet the bankability criteria.
The thesis is not that all Nigerian infrastructure is financeable. It is that a disciplined pipeline of transactions in power, logistics, digital, and water subsectors — where revenue certainty, government commitment, and DFI anchoring are confirmed — can generate 20–25% gross IRR in Naira terms while delivering the measurable community infrastructure outcomes DFI co-investors require. The gap between Nigeria's infrastructure need and Nigeria's infrastructure delivery is the investment opportunity. AMANI's mandate is to sit precisely in that gap.